Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Ron Paul Surging in the Polls Among Moderates

Double-digit support in NH, 8% in Michigan... ahead of Thompson and Huckabee in both, ahead of Romney in Michigan. Large undecideds in both samples, so there's still opportunity to gain on McCain and Romney in NH, and an even better chance to catch Giuliani and McCain in MI.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Thompson is going to crash and burn as much as I think he will in the MSNBC debate this afternoon. I'm not a big fan of Chris Matthews, but I'm hoping he lays into Thompson and the other "top tier" candidates.
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From USAElectionPolls.com

Ron Paul Surging in the Polls Among Moderates

There is more great news for the Ron Paul campaign, not just the money he raised in the third quarter but also that this is starting to translate into real life support. Among moderates in New Hampshire, Ron Paul is in the double digits. The sample size of moderates in this poll is only 203 but is as high as some of the University polls that are reported widely in the media.

John McCain 26%
Mitt Romney 17%
Rudy Giuliani 16%
Ron Paul 10%
Fred Thompson 5%
Mike Huckabee 4%
Unsure 21%
Source

In Michigan, out of a sample size of 307, Ron Paul is sitting at 8% among moderates.

John McCain 20%
Rudy Giuliani 16%
Ron Paul 8%
Mitt Romney 6%
Fred Thompson 5%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Sam Brownback 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Unsure 38%
Source

This is very promising news for Ron Paul because the moderates tend to be the most Undecided of all the voters. New Hampshire (21%), Michigan (39%) so as those voters learn of Ron Paul, more gains are expected. The other item to note is that Independents in New Hampshire are allowed to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries if they wish. Thus, Ron Paul will be gaining in the polls shortly.

Ron Paul's Fundraising Success Is Translating Into Surging Poll Numbers Among Moderates

Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate for President that is anti-war -- something that gets him favor among Liberals and Moderates. And according to the latest polls in Michigan and New Hampshire, he is polling at 8% and 10% respectively among moderates in those states.

Moderates tend to be highly Undecided at this stage of the election and USAElectionPolls.com believes that as soon as Paul's name recognition grows coupled with these voters settling on a candidate, Ron Paul should see more signs of improvement.

According to USAElectionPolls.com, leaving out Moderates that would vote in the Primaries happens far too often. "Some pollsters think that it is okay to leave off moderates because they do not fit in line with their label 'Likely Republican Voter' but it does a disservice to candidates that appeal to them like a Ron Paul. We have been making claims that Ron Paul is really higher in the polls since May 2007 and this is just one of those biases."

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